Revenue Modeling: Reverse-Engineering Goalhanger’s £15M/Yr From 250K Subscribers

How Goalhanger’s 250K Subscribers Translate to £15M — and What Creators Should Learn

Hook: If you’re a creator wrestling with discoverability, uncertain monetization, or which pricing tiers to test, this is for you: a numeric, step-by-step reverse-engineer of Goalhanger’s public milestone that turns headline metrics into a reusable financial model you can copy, test and adapt.

Quick headline (inverted pyramid)

Press Gazette reported in January 2026 that Goalhanger surpassed 250,000 paying subscribers across its shows, with an average subscriber paying £60 per year (roughly a 50/50 split between monthly and annual payments). Simple math: 250,000 × £60 = £15,000,000 annual subscriber revenue. But headlines omit the levers creators care about: pricing mix, churn, payment/platform fees, VAT, acquisition rate and LTV — all of which change strategy.

“Goalhanger now has more than 250,000 paying subscribers … The average subscriber pays £60 per year (split roughly 50/50 by monthly and annual payments)… This equates to annual subscriber income of around £15m per year.” — Press Gazette, Jan 2026

What this article gives you

• Clear definitions and formulas (ARPU, MRR, LTV, churn).
• A baseline model that reproduces Goalhanger’s £15M number.
• 3 alternative pricing/churn scenarios showing how ARPU and retention move revenue.
• Concrete spreadsheet formulas and a template blueprint you can copy.
• Actionable optimization levers aligned with 2026 creator trends.

Key variables and definitions (the building blocks)

Before we model, define the variables you’ll use in a spreadsheet. Put these in the top rows of your sheet.

• Subscribers (S) — active paying subscribers (Goalhanger: 250,000)
• Annual ARPU (A_yr) — average revenue per user per year (Goalhanger: £60)
• Monthly ARPU (A_m) — A_yr / 12 if simplified
• Monthly churn (c) — percent of paying subs lost each month
• Annual churn (C_yr) — 1 − (1 − c)^12
• MRR — monthly recurring revenue = S × A_m
• LTV — lifetime value ≈ A_m / c (if churn is monthly)
• CAC — customer acquisition cost per paying subscriber
• Platform & payment fees — percentage + fixed fees (e.g., Stripe, Apple/Google where applicable)
• VAT / sales tax — % to collect/remit (UK: typically 20% on digital, note if prices are VAT-inclusive)

Baseline model: Reproduce the £15M number

Inputs (as reported):

• S = 250,000
• A_yr = £60
• Monthly/Annual split: 50% monthly, 50% annual (affects cash flow, not headline ARR immediately)

Simple arithmetic

Annual subscriber revenue = S × A_yr = 250,000 × £60 = £15,000,000.

MRR approximation

Approximate monthly ARPU: A_m = £60 / 12 = £5. MRR = S × A_m = 250,000 × £5 = £1,250,000 per month.

What that number doesn’t show

• Net revenue after payment/platform fees and VAT.
• Churn-driven acquisition needs to keep 250K active.
• Revenue concentration by top shows or tier — single average hides variance.

Net revenue: fees and taxes (assumptions you must set)

Use the following conservative assumptions for a UK-based creator business in 2026:

• Payment processing + platform fees = 4.5% (blend of Stripe/PayPal + distribution fees; adjust if using Apple/Google marketplaces where fees are higher).
• VAT (digital services) = 20% — note whether prices are quoted inclusive or exclusive of VAT; many publishers quote gross prices.

Baseline net calculation (example)

If the £60 is the price paid by the user (gross), then:

1. VAT @20% (collected): £60 × 0.20 = £12 (passed to tax authorities)
2. Net after VAT = £48
3. Payment fees @4.5% on gross = £60 × 0.045 = £2.70 (platform may charge on gross or net — adjust)
4. Net to creator ≈ £48 − £2.70 = £45.30 per subscriber per year

Net annual revenue ≈ 250,000 × £45.30 ≈ £11,325,000. That’s ~25% less than headline £15M once VAT and fees are applied. Assumptions change this number significantly.

Scenario modeling: change ARPU, churn, and pricing tiers

The real levers are pricing mix and retention. Below are three scenarios you can copy into a sheet.

Scenario A — Goalhanger baseline (replicate)

• S = 250,000
• 50% annual (£60/yr equivalent), 50% monthly (£5/mo equivalent)
• Assume annual gross price = £60 (user pays), monthly price = £6 (slight premium for flexibility)
• Payment fees 4.5%, VAT 20%

Weighted ARPU = (0.5 × £60) + (0.5 × £6 × 12) / 2? Simpler: since monthly customers pay £6×12 = £72/yr, weighted A_yr = 0.5×£60 + 0.5×£72 = £66. That raises ARR to 250k×£66 = £16.5M gross — shows how monthly premiums change headline figures. Always confirm the actual price points.

Scenario B — Tiered pricing (Supporter / Core / Premium)

Assume three tiers and distribution:

• Supporter: £3/month (30%)
• Core: £6/month (50%)
• Premium: £12/month (20%)

Compute annualized spend per tier: Supporter = £36, Core = £72, Premium = £144.

Weighted ARPU = 0.3×36 + 0.5×72 + 0.2×144 = £10.8 + £36 + £28.8 = £75.6/yr.

ARR = 250,000 × £75.6 = £18.9M gross. Net after 20% VAT and 4.5% fees (approx) = £18.9M × (1 − 0.20) × (1 − 0.045) ≈ £14.3M.

Lesson: modestly higher-priced premium tiers and a distribution that shifts value upward increases ARR materially. But measure churn per tier — premium tiers often retain longer.

Scenario C — Churn stress test (why retention matters more than acquisition)

Key formula: Monthly new paying subs required to hold net subscribers = c × S (where c is monthly churn).

• If c = 2% → new required = 0.02 × 250,000 = 5,000 new paying subs every month to keep 250k steady.
• If c = 1% → required = 2,500/month.
• If c = 5% → required = 12,500/month.

Multiply required new subs by CAC to get monthly acquisition spend required to maintain peak. If CAC = £10 and churn = 2%, monthly acquisition spend ≈ 5,000 × £10 = £50,000/month.

Reduce churn and you dramatically drop acquisition needs and raise LTV. Investing in retention (exclusive content, community, annual discounts) often yields better ROI than paid acquisition.

LTV, CAC payback and growth math (practical formulas)

Include these cells/formulas in your spreadsheet so you can swap inputs and run scenarios fast.

1. Monthly ARPU (A_m) = A_yr / 12
2. Monthly churn (c) = user input (e.g., 0.02 for 2%)
3. LTV (months) = 1 / c
4. LTV (£) = A_m × (1 / c)
5. Required new subs per month to maintain S = c × S
6. ARR = S × A_yr
7. MRR = ARR / 12
8. Net ARR after VAT & fees = ARR × (1 − VAT%) × (1 − Fees%)

Example: c = 0.02, A_m = £5, LTV = £5 / 0.02 = £250. If CAC = £20, payback period = CAC / A_m = 20 / 5 = 4 months; profitable over life (LTV / CAC = 12.5x).

Spreadsheet template blueprint (copy-ready)

Set up a simple Google Sheet with these labeled cells (A column names, B column values):

• A1 = Subscribers (S) → B1 = 250000
• A2 = Avg annual price paid (A_yr) → B2 = 60
• A3 = Monthly churn (c) → B3 = 0.02
• A4 = Payment fees (%) → B4 = 0.045
• A5 = VAT (%) → B5 = 0.20
• A6 = CAC → B6 = 10

Formulas (place in the C column):

• C1 (MRR) = =B1*(B2/12)
• C2 (ARR) = =B1*B2
• C3 (Net ARR) = =C2*(1-B5)*(1-B4)
• C4 (LTV in £) = =(B2/12)/(B3)
• C5 (New subs/month required) = =B1*B3
• C6 (Monthly acquisition cost) = =C5*B6

Copy this, and then create alternate tabs for pricing tiers, churn sensitivity (1%–5%), and CAC scenarios. Use data validation to make churn and convert-rate sliders for quick scenario analysis.

2026 trends — what to model differently this year

Late 2025 and early 2026 accelerated several creator-economy shifts you should include in forecasts:

• Subscription bundling: More creators and networks offer bundles (podcast + newsletter + Discord). Bundling increases ARPU and retention — model a +10–30% ARPU upside for successful bundles.
• Native payments & lower platform fees: Alternative billing flows and creator-first SaaS are reducing take rates in some channels — test scenarios with fees at 2.5% vs 10%.
• AI personalization: Improved content personalization (recommendations, dynamic paywalls) can reduce churn by 10–30% where deployed — run retention uplift scenarios.
• Hybrid revenue: More publishers mix subscriptions with episodic paid content, live events, and commerce. Model 5–15% revenue from non-subscription streams to diversify risk.
• Regulation and tax complexity: Cross-border VAT and obligations grew in 2025; ensure your revenue model separates gross receipts from remittances.

Practical optimizations you can test (priority list)

Based on the modeling above here are high-impact, low-effort tests to improve economics:

1. Push annual plans with a one-time discount: Improves cash flow and lowers churn (annual churn < monthly churn). Experiment with 10–20% discount.
2. Introduce a small premium tier: £3–£5/mo premium for bonus interviews or ad-free — see tiered scenario uplift.
3. Measure churn by cohort: Track monthly churn by acquisition channel and price tier — target retention interventions to worst cohorts.
4. Bundle non-recurring products: Live ticket presales and merchandise for top-tier members raise ARPU without increasing churn risk.
5. Automate win-back flows: Simple email + trial campaigns can recapture 10–20% of cancels — model this into acquisition needs.

How many sign-ups do you need to hit £X?

Reverse target: If you want £1M net after VAT/fees, set target net ARR = £1,000,000. Solve S = Net ARR / Net ARPU where Net ARPU = A_yr × (1 − VAT) × (1 − fees).

Example: Net ARPU (using £60 price) ≈ £60 × 0.8 × 0.955 = £45.84. Required paying subs ≈ 1,000,000 / 45.84 ≈ 21,814 paying subs.

That math helps you set marketing goals: divide by conversion rates from leads → paying user to get acquisition volume targets.

Real-world constraints & sanity checks

Numbers look elegant on the sheet. Reality adds frictions:

• Top-line concentrations: a small number of shows often deliver the majority of subscribers — model skewed distributions.
• Refunds and fraud: include a 0.5–1% buffer in fees for chargebacks.
• Customer support and content cost: higher-tier promises increase recurring production obligations.
• Churn is sticky: small improvements compound; small degradations compound negatively.

Final checklist to build your own Goalhanger-style model

1. Populate base inputs: S, A_yr, churn, fees, VAT, CAC.
2. Build ARR, MRR, Net ARR formulas.
3. Run a churn sensitivity (1%–5%) and price sensitivity (±20%).
4. Model tier mixes and premium uplift scenarios.
5. Calculate required new paid sign-ups per month and CAC budget.
6. Compare LTV to CAC — target LTV/CAC > 3 for sustainable growth; >5 is excellent for subscription businesses with low capital needs.

Closing — why this matters for creators in 2026

Goalhanger’s milestone is instructive because it makes visible what combination of scale, pricing and retention can deliver. The headline £15M masks net economics and acquisition/retention effort — but it’s a realistic target if you: 1) design tiered offers that lift ARPU, 2) prioritize retention to reduce churn, and 3) model fees and taxes conservatively.

Actionable takeaway: Build the simple spreadsheet above, run 3-4 scenarios (baseline, premium tiers, churn stress), and prioritize the single lever that gives the highest ROI — often retention. If your LTV/CAC is low, stop discounting and optimize onboarding and content stickiness first.

Call to action

Want the Google Sheets template used in this walkthrough? Download a ready-to-copy model or request a customized forecast for your channel at channels.top — or reply and I’ll send a sheet you can fork and run with. Run the numbers, then pick the one lever you can improve this month: price, retention, or CAC. Do that, and you’ll be building the economics behind your own 250K story.

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